Economist Christopher Thornberg sounded the alarm at a San Rafael Chamber of Commerce event: Marin County’s economy has mostly flatlined over the past six years. He blamed a shrinking labor force and a housing stock that just doesn’t meet local workers’ needs.
This post pulls out the heart of his message. Marin’s high median income hides real barriers that keep families and young workers from putting down roots here, and the only real path to stronger growth is building more housing—everywhere from San Rafael to Novato, Sausalito to Larkspur.
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What the data really shows about Marin’s economy
At the Chamber discussion, Thornberg called out a weird contradiction. Marin’s median household income hit $149,091 in 2024—eighth highest in the U.S.—yet the county’s economic momentum has barely budged.
He pointed to a labor force that’s shrunk since 2020. Real GDP rose just 0.8% over five years, hitting about $29 billion in 2024.
So, Marin residents are wealthier on average, but the county isn’t creating enough new jobs or homes. That leaves aspiring workers and recent grads from Mill Valley, San Anselmo, and Corte Madera stuck on the sidelines.
Thornberg crunched county data and found a 6% drop in employment since 2020. He warned that the housing market is shutting out many locals.
There’s been a 25% drop in residents earning $25,000 to $49,000 since 2019. Meanwhile, households making more than $150,000 jumped by 22% over the same period.
Even with Marin’s obvious appeal—Fairfax, Tiburon, those bayfront neighborhoods—more than 16,400 Marin residents commute to San Francisco. It’s a sign that Marin keeps losing out to out-of-county demand instead of housing its own workers.
Housing: the bottleneck that shapes every other outcome
Thornberg said Marin’s housing stock grew just 1.6% over the past decade. That’s way behind California’s 7.3% growth rate.
In cities like San Rafael and Novato, the shortage of new homes means prices keep climbing. Teachers, police officers, and hospital workers—people Marin depends on—can’t afford to live in the neighborhoods they serve.
The median home price hovers around $1.6 million. Sure, that lines up with incomes, but it also screams “barrier”—housing supply simply hasn’t kept up with demand in places like Sausalito, Tiburon, Larkspur, or even San Anselmo and Ross.
When housing gets tight, business owners in downtown Mill Valley or near San Rafael’s Civic Center feel the squeeze. Employees face brutal commutes, turnover ticks up, and hiring is an ongoing struggle for employers in Marin City, Corte Madera, and Fairfax.
Thornberg sees housing policy as the lever to steady the labor market and boost growth across Marin’s patchwork of towns—from Marinwood’s hills to the little villages of Ross and Sausalito.
Income variation, poverty, and displacement risks
At the top end, high earners keep pulling away. But the median masks a bigger risk: plenty of households could get displaced by a single emergency, even in “wealthy” corridors like San Rafael, Mill Valley, and Tiburon.
San Rafael Chamber CEO Karen Strolia pointed out that a high median income hides both extreme wealth and deep poverty. She said lots of families in towns like Corte Madera and San Anselmo live one crisis away from real trouble.
Housing costs ripple through everyone—employers, seniors on fixed incomes in San Geronimo Valley, recent grads in Novato, first-time buyers in Larkspur, and working families all over Marin.
Affordability isn’t just a young renter’s problem. It hits older residents, small business owners, and mid-career workers who keep communities running from Corte Madera to Fairfax, and even out in West Marin’s rural spots.
Workforce dynamics and policy directions
County Executive Derek Johnson described Marin as a place people want to live. He called for budgets that connect housing, economic growth, and community vitality.
The panel pushed for faster permitting and more affordable housing. They want incentives so Marin workers can actually live here, which would cut down on commutes and help local employers in towns like Novato and San Rafael.
Thornberg’s forecast leans toward policies that boost housing supply. At the same time, he wants to protect Marin’s quality of life and its environment, from the redwoods in Fairfax to Sausalito’s bayside neighborhoods and the ferry routes to Larkspur and Tiburon.
Key takeaways for Marin communities:
- Increase housing density and speed up approvals in San Rafael, Novato, and nearby towns to match workforce growth.
- Expand affordable housing in Sausalito, Corte Madera, and Mill Valley to help families stay and support local businesses.
- Encourage mixed-use development along commercial streets in Ross, San Anselmo, and San Rafael so downtowns stay lively and residents aren’t priced out.
- Invest in transportation that shortens commutes to San Francisco for Marin workers, while also building more jobs here at home.
As officials plan budgets across Marin, the message feels pretty clear. Housing growth and economic vitality go hand in hand, from San Rafael to Sausalito and Novato to Fairfax.
If Marin wants towns like Mill Valley, Tiburon, and San Anselmo to stay affordable and vibrant, it needs to balance housing supply with its unique livability. It’s a tough puzzle, but it’s one worth solving for the next generation.
Here is the source article for this story: Marin needs more housing to grow economy, analyst says
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