This article looks at California’s top-two open primary and how its quirks could play out in the governor’s race. It keeps a close eye on Marin County voters from San Rafael to Sausalito, Mill Valley to Novato.
It breaks down what the system does and what experts are predicting. Residents of towns like Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Fairfax could feel the impact come November.
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California’s top-two primary: what it is and why it matters in Marin
California’s unique top-two open primary, created in 2010, advances the two candidates with the most votes to the general election regardless of party affiliation. In Marin County, people in San Anselmo, Larkspur, and Ross often talk about local races alongside statewide politics. The mechanics can seem abstract until you realize a November ballot might not have a clear major-party choice.
The system tries to encourage moderation. But a crowded field can split the vote on one side and lead to some odd results.
The mechanics and the possible outcomes
Under the top-two rule, the general election features the two vote-getters from the June primary, even if they’re from the same party. That opens the door for two Republicans to advance to November if Democratic ballots get crowded or voters split their support among many candidates.
Political analyst Paul Mitchell thinks there’s about a 20% chance the November ballot could lock out a Democratic candidate. Marin residents should probably keep an eye on this as primary results trickle in from San Rafael to Petaluma Road.
Polls from party leaders show some interesting dynamics. In a recent snapshot, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco led with 16% and 14%, while Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer each hovered around 10%. There’s a big undecided group—about 24%—which could really shake things up in towns like San Anselmo and Fairfax if someone surges late.
- Voter withdrawal pressure in Marin: Party leaders want low-polling Democrats to exit if they’re not viable, hoping to shift turnout in places like Mill Valley and Nicasio.
- Impact on voter choice: Critics worry the top-two system reduces meaningful major-party options in November for Marin voters who want a clear Democrat or Republican pick.
- Moderation vs. obstruction: Supporters say the system brings in more moderate legislators. Critics argue it distorts the ballot in counties from Marin to Mendocino.
Impact on Marin County voters and local races
For folks in Marin’s cities—San Rafael, Tiburon, Sausalito, and beyond—the primary outcome could shape which statewide issues dominate the November ballot. If November features only Republicans, county-level discussions about housing, waterfront development, and environmental protections could shift, especially in towns along the San Francisco Bay and the Point Reyes coastline.
How a potential all-Republican November could shake Marin politics
Local races in Marin—like supervisor districts spanning Corte Madera, Greenbrae, and Novato—might feel more of the statewide race’s influence if the governor’s race narrows to two Republican contenders. Marin voters might see debates on housing density near the Larkspur ferry terminal and shoreline protections near Stinson Beach take on a different tone, depending on the general election matchup.
Even within town councils and school boards from Sausalito to Fairfax, turnout in a two-party November could tilt candidate viability. Campaigns might start targeting broader, cross-town issues instead of hyper-local platforms.
In San Rafael and nearby areas, residents may notice campaigning shift toward statewide themes—energy policy, wildfire preparedness, and transportation investment. Local issues could end up taking a back seat.
What observers are saying
Experts and party leaders have mixed feelings about the top-two system. Supporters say it cuts down on hard-edged partisanship and forces more collaboration. Critics claim it can short-circuit voter choice and allow strategic manipulation of November alignments.
This debate has touched Marin just as much as Oakland, Sonoma, and the broader Bay Area. The question keeps coming back: how much control do voters want over ballot outcomes in places like Santa Rosa Valley and the San Geronimo Valley?
Paths to reform and what it would take
Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, reform options basically split into two tracks. One would keep the top-two format for legislative races, while the other would bring back party-nominated general-election ballots for statewide offices.
Voters would have to approve any changes. Quite a few Marin County residents—especially in Sausalito, Greenbrae, and the Ross Valley corridor—are watching for signs that a more traditional party choice could return in November.
Meanwhile, the county’s towns—from San Rafael to Corte Madera, and from Bon Air to Novato—keep weighing how to involve voters in the primary process. Folks are also thinking about what they’d actually like to see on the November ballot.
If you live in Marin County, here’s the gist: understanding the rules gives you a leg up in following the race. That goes for governor, sure, but also for the local boards that shape your everyday life along the Golden Gate route.
Here is the source article for this story: Column: The time has come to discard California’s top-two open primary
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