Marin County’s latest housing update lays out a path for unincorporated communities to meet state mandates through a growing development pipeline. It also highlights a sizable shortfall that needs to be closed by 2031.
The report tracks a mix of new housing permits, ADUs, and ambitious site proposals across towns like Mill Valley, Strawberry, Larkspur, San Rafael, and the wider West Marin area. Planners are urging action to speed things up.
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Marin County’s Housing Element Update: What the Numbers Reveal
Two big truths jump out: Marin’s eight-year plan needs a lot more affordable housing, and the current pipeline isn’t enough. The county must deliver 3,569 housing units in unincorporated areas by 2031, including 1,100 very-low-income units and 634 low-income units.
Even as things seem to pick up, the gap stays wide for communities from Novato to San Rafael. It’s a stubborn problem that’s not going away soon, and people are starting to notice.
Key figures shaping unincorporated Marin’s housing landscape
Here’s a quick look at the numbers across the county’s unincorporated pockets. This matters most for smaller towns and neighborhoods from Fairfax to Corte Madera and beyond.
- Pipeline: More than 700 homes are moving through the development review pipeline in unincorporated Marin.
- RHNA target: The goal is 3,569 units by 2031, with that income-distribution split looming over every meeting.
- Permits issued: In the first three years of the cycle, 343 permits were issued across all income categories, including 117 in 2025.
- ADU surge: ADUs have jumped, with 83 ADUs in 2025 compared to an average of 35 per year in 2019.
- Shortfall: Only 64 permits for very-low-income units and 83 for low-income units have been issued so far. That leaves well over 3,200 units to go if Marin wants to hit the RHNA numbers.
- Major proposals: Redevelopment of a former theological seminary in Strawberry, Oak Hill Apartments near Larkspur, a project near the Marinwood shopping center, and two developments in unincorporated San Rafael are all in the mix.
- Compliance and policy: Marin isn’t at risk of the Housing Accountability Act “builder’s remedy” because the Housing Element is in compliance. Still, SB 35 could come into play if targets keep slipping.
- Acceleration ideas: The county’s looking at development on county-owned land, addressing farmworker housing in West Marin, boosting developer outreach, and dedicating funds to help people stay in existing affordable homes.
Major projects driving the pipeline across Marin’s towns
Several high-profile proposals show where the county is counting on growth to meet state obligations. There’s plenty of talk in towns from Ross to Santa Venetia and from Fairfax to Tiburon.
Residents in Mill Valley and San Anselmo are watching closely, wondering how approvals will affect traffic, schools, and the feel of their neighborhoods. It’s a hot topic at local meetings lately.
- The Strawberry redevelopment of the former theological seminary site could reshape a chunk of unincorporated northern Marin.
- The Oak Hill Apartments complex near Larkspur is a big piece of the puzzle in central Marin.
- A project near the Marinwood shopping center would add to the housing mix in western Novato and northern San Rafael’s corridor.
- Two developments in unincorporated San Rafael are a real test of how these zones will meet RHNA timelines.
Policy tools, compliance, and the path ahead
To keep up, Marin is weighing several policy tools and new strategies. The county says it’s sticking with compliance on the Housing Element, but people are keeping an eye on possible SB 35 penalties if things fall behind.
Planners are looking at ways to use county-owned land for new housing, address farmworker housing needs in West Marin, and reach out to developers for quicker approvals. There’s also talk of dedicating funds to help residents stay put, hoping to reduce displacement risk as the market tightens in places like Corte Madera and Caledonia.
What this means for Marin residents from Sausalito to San Rafael
Homeowners and renters all over Marin—whether you’re in Sausalito’s waterfront neighborhoods or tucked into Novato’s quieter inland streets—are watching this update with cautious optimism. Sure, there’s some progress, but honestly, getting enough affordable housing here will take real persistence, teamwork with local governments, and, let’s be honest, a bit of nudging from the state.
As the county moves forward with the 2023–2031 Housing Element, folks in Ross, Mill Valley, and Fairfax are keeping an eye out. Which projects will actually break ground? Will ADU programs finally expand in a meaningful way?
It’s a balancing act—growth, nuance, and all those community voices chiming in. Marin’s story is still unfolding, from the hills of West Marin to the busy South San Rafael corridor. The next few years should be interesting.
Here is the source article for this story: Marin County reports progress on housing goals, 700 homes in development pipeline
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