This article digs into a new UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll showing two Republicans leading California’s 2026 governor’s race as the June primary approaches. It explores what this could mean for Marin County voters, housing issues, and how the top-two primary system might shape the November ballot.
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What the poll signals for the 2026 California governor’s race
The UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times online poll surveyed 5,019 registered California voters from March 9–14. Two Republicans top the crowded field: Steve Hilton at 17% and Chad Bianco at 16%.
Democratic voters seem less enthusiastic, and the field of prominent Democrats is split wide open. California’s top-two primary system could even keep Democrats off the November ballot, which feels almost unthinkable in such a blue state.
Democrats Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter both land at 13%. Tom Steyer, after splashing out on TV ads, sits at 10%.
No other Democrat cracks 5%. Xavier Becerra has 5%, Antonio Villaraigosa and Matt Mahan each get 4%, and Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond trail at 1% apiece.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo said he’s stunned by how fractured and low-information voters are as ballots go out. Many candidates just don’t have positive image ratings.
Porter has the highest favorable rating at 34%, which is only a modest rebound after a rough patch last year. For Marin County readers, this mix shows how statewide races can come down to name recognition and how ballots look in places from San Rafael to Sausalito.
Leading contenders and the Democratic split
These numbers highlight a big problem for California voters: Democrats are split, and most candidates aren’t inspiring much confidence. In Marin’s towns—San Anselmo, Mill Valley, Novato—the results could depend on whether Democrats unite behind a single candidate before ballots hit mailboxes.
The top-two system means even strong Democratic showings might not guarantee a Democrat on the November ballot. That’s something local readers should keep an eye on as the race tightens.
Why ballot titles and the “sheriff” edge matter
The poll points out how much ballot titles matter in races where voters don’t know the candidates. The “sheriff” label next to Bianco’s name might give him an edge with voters skimming through ballots in Marin precincts, including Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur.
For many, a public-safety title can matter as much as any policy plan, especially in crowded races. In places like Sausalito and Fairfax, voters often look for simple cues when sizing up statewide candidates.
Top issues across Marin and the state
Voters across party lines say affordability—lowering the cost of living, increasing housing supply, and cutting gas and utility prices—is the number one issue statewide. In Marin County, where housing costs are sky-high in towns like San Rafael, Sausalito, Mill Valley, and Novato, people pay close attention to how state policies might affect local affordability and development.
The survey also found a sharp partisan gap on waste, fraud and corruption: about half of Republicans call it a top concern, compared to just 10% of Democrats. That divide shows up in county-level oversight and budgeting in Marin cities like Ross and Fairfax.
- Affordability and housing supply in Marin County towns such as Fairfax and Ross.
- Gas, electricity, and utility costs affecting households from San Geronimo to Novato.
- Perceptions of government waste and corruption and how residents want accountability.
Marin’s local lens on a statewide race
For Marin’s voters, statewide politics collide with local worries: housing prices, commutes to San Francisco, and the constant tug-of-war between growth and preservation. This plays out across the hills and waterfronts from Tiburon to Marin City.
The top-two primary system adds even more pressure. A divided Democratic field could set up a November matchup that surprises Bay Area watchers, from San Quentin to Inverness and beyond.
What to watch as ballots go out to Marin neighbors
The poll’s margin of error is 2.5 percentage points. It’s based on 2.5 million registered California voters and gives us just a snapshot from March 9–14.
Ballots are heading to Marin households now, whether you’re in the shoreline neighborhoods of Sausalito or tucked away on the hillside streets of Mill Valley. Keep an eye out for any shifts in Democratic consolidation.
It’s worth noticing how a recognizable label on Bianco might play out, and if candidates’ answers about affordability actually resonate with Marin’s own housing and energy costs. Turnout, clarity in messaging, and the public’s response to a unified Democratic message—or maybe a fragmented field—could really reshape the November ballot in every Marin town.
Stay tuned to our Marin County coverage for local reactions and deeper analysis as the June primary nears. Ballots will start showing up in mailboxes from San Rafael to Novato before you know it.
Here is the source article for this story: Republicans top California’s confounding race for governor, poll shows
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