Three Democrats Lead California Governor Favorability Poll

This Marin County blog post digs into a new UC Berkeley Citrin Center/Politico poll on California’s governor race. We’ll look at who’s ahead, what voters want—fresh faces or experience—and how all this could matter for Marin County towns from San Rafael to Sausalito as the June primary creeps closer.

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Poll Spotlight: Hilton Leads in a Fluid California Governor’s Race

Steve Hilton leads the latest statewide poll, pulling in 19% support among likely June primary voters. The Citrin Center/Politico survey puts Tom Steyer at 13%, while Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, and Republican Chad Bianco are all tied at 11% each.

Other Democrats are still in the mix but lag behind: Xavier Becerra (5%), Antonio Villaraigosa (4%), Matt Mahan (3%), Betty Yee (2%), and Tony Thurmond (1%). No Republican is really breaking away from the pack here.

The field’s been pretty unstable. Porter, Swalwell, and Steyer have all swapped places at the top of the Democratic tier as polling’s gone on.

Ian Calderon has exited the race, so the rest of the Democratic slate will be on the June ballot. Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, has urged the lower-polling Democrats to step aside so voters can rally behind a main contender.

That kind of consolidation talk actually matters for Marin County, too. Folks in San Anselmo or Novato keep debating whether outsider energy or proven experience will tip the scales.

California voters are spreading their support across a field that’s still wide open as June gets closer. The survey included 1,004 likely voters polled from Feb. 25 to Mar. 3, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

Another poll by Emerson College, released the same day, told a different story—Swalwell at 17%, Hilton at 13%. That’s a reminder for Marinites: statewide opinion can shift fast, and new polls or headlines can change things overnight from Oakland to Tiburon.

Second-Choice Dynamics and the Democratic Field

Second-choice preferences show some interesting spillover among Democrats. Nearly 40% of Swalwell supporters picked Porter as their backup, and about 25% of Porter’s camp went for Swalwell as their second pick.

The poll shows cross-support, too. Steyer is picking up second-choice nods from Becerra and Villaraigosa, which could matter if nobody pulls ahead by June.

These second-choice dynamics could shape things in both coastal and inland Marin. Towns like San Rafael, Novato, and Corte Madera are watching to see if second-choice flows change the June ballot—especially for voters who want a “new face” but still care about steady policy on housing, climate, and public services.

How those second choices move could nudge local endorsements, campaign stops, and even neighborhood forums from Fairfax to Sausalito. It’s all still pretty up in the air.

Marin County Focus: Local Implications for San Rafael, Mill Valley, and Beyond

Marin voters are still digesting the poll, but a few practical implications are already popping up for local campaigns and residents across Marin County’s towns and cities.

This broad interest in a “fresh perspective” might give an edge to candidates who frame ambitious housing and climate plans with real, local benefits.

At the same time, Marin folks still seem to appreciate candidates with hands-on governance experience, especially those who deliver on transportation, trail development, and wildfire preparedness in places like Rodeo Beach-adjacent districts or hillside neighborhoods in Corte Madera.

Marin voters could lean toward outsiders who promise new approaches to regional issues along the North Bay coastal corridor.
Messaging that mixes bold ideas with clear, doable steps on housing and transit might actually catch on in towns like Napa-south (for regional context), where cross-bay commuters matter.
With second-choice dynamics in play, local campaigns may focus on coalition-building and cross-town endorsements to get the most out of June turnout in Mill Valley, Sausalito, and San Rafael.
Turnout campaigns rooted in Marin’s diverse communities—from the Marin City area to suburban clusters in Novato—could tip the scales if the race stays crowded.

With the June primary coming up fast, Marin County readers should keep an eye on updates from Citrin Center and Politico, and check out local coverage on how these statewide trends play out in Marin-friendly messages and campaign stops from the town of Verdi to Ross and beyond.

Honestly, it’s worth staying tuned to your Marin County newspaper for on-the-ground reporting from San Rafael to Sausalito and inside the doors of local town halls as the race keeps shifting.

Here is the source article for this story: 3 Democrats compete for most favorable governor’s candidate in poll

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Joe Harris is the founder of MarinCountyVisitor.com, a comprehensive online resource inspired by his passion for Marin County's natural beauty, diverse communities, and rich cultural offerings. Combining his love for exploration with his intimate local knowledge, Joe curates an authentic guide to the area featuring guides on Marin County Cities, Things to Do, and Places to Stay. Follow Joe on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.