Marin County’s public schools are entering a pivotal moment. Enrollment has dipped again this year, and that seemingly small percentage change is reshaping budgets, staffing, and long-term planning from Novato and San Rafael to Mill Valley, Larkspur, and Fairfax.
Pandemic-era funding is expiring as costs keep rising. Districts are left with a tough question: how do you keep quality programs going when fewer kids show up?
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Marin County Enrollment Declines: The Numbers Behind the Story
Marin public schools now serve 29,524 students, a drop of 553 from last year—nearly 2%. Compared with 2019–20, enrollment is down about 8%.
For families in Corte Madera, Sausalito, and Greenbrae, these numbers might feel distant. But they lead to real decisions about class sizes, course offerings, and program cuts.
Why a Small Percentage Matters So Much
Superintendent John Carroll calls the decline part of the natural “ebb and flow” of enrollment. But in California, where funding follows the student, even a small drop sends ripples through the system.
District leaders from Novato to Ross are recalibrating budgets midstream. They’re adjusting long-term projections and trying to avoid the deep cuts Marin residents remember from earlier decades.
Budget Pressures After the Pandemic Peak
The enrollment decline is just one piece of a bigger financial puzzle in Marin communities like Tiburon, Belvedere, and Kentfield. Districts face pressure on several fronts at once.
End of Federal Relief and Rising Costs
During the pandemic, federal relief dollars helped school systems from San Anselmo to Mill Valley keep staff, expand mental health services, and upgrade technology. Those funds are running out now.
When enrollment drops in places like Novato Unified and San Rafael City Schools, it makes things even tighter. Fewer students mean less revenue to cover rising costs, so districts have to consider cuts and even talk about local taxes or parcel measures.
Lessons from Marin’s Enrollment History
Marin has seen this before. People who lived in Marin City, Fairfax, or Larkspur in the 1970s and 1980s remember when falling enrollment led to school closures and consolidations.
From Closures to Expansion and Back Again
In the early 2000s, things flipped. Families moving from San Francisco into communities like San Rafael, Novato, and Mill Valley fueled an enrollment surge, leading to bond measures and campus expansions.
New classrooms went up, and programs grew. Now, the current declines are bringing back familiar debates in school board meetings from Ross Valley to Tamalpais Valley:
How Major Marin Districts Are Feeling the Impact
The three biggest districts—Novato Unified, San Rafael City Schools, and the Tamalpais Union High School District—sit at the center of this story. Smaller elementary districts have their own patterns, too.
Novato, San Rafael, and Tamalpais: Different Pressures, Shared Concerns
Novato Unified has lost about 150 students this year, which is a real hit for one district. San Rafael City Schools reports fewer new immigrant students, especially in neighborhoods near downtown San Rafael and the Canal.
San Rafael is seeing growth in transitional kindergarten (TK). Families in both east and west San Rafael are responding to the expanded TK eligibility, and the district is adding early education programs to meet that demand.
The Tamalpais Union High School District—serving Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Larkspur, and Bolinas—faces its main fiscal challenge in shrinking enrollment. Tam relies mostly on local property taxes, but fewer students still affect staffing and which classes run at Tam High, Redwood, and Drake/Archie Williams.
Some elementary districts in Kentfield and Ross Valley are seeing modest gains. Others, like those in Fairfax or Sausalito, are recording slight drops.
The picture stays mixed, which makes countywide planning even trickier.
Where Are Marin Families Going—and What Comes Next?
Local officials from Novato to Tiburon agree on one thing: they need better data on what’s driving these shifts. Are families leaving Marin altogether? Maybe they’re choosing private schools in San Rafael or Mill Valley, or transferring to other public districts?
Planning for the Future of Marin Schools
Understanding these trends will shape how districts redraw attendance boundaries and size facilities. The way leaders design programs in the years ahead hinges on these shifts.
For families across Marin—from the hillside streets of Belvedere to the west Marin enclaves near Olema—the choices happening now feel huge. They’ll determine class sizes and course options, not to mention the energy on campus for the next generation.
Enrollment isn’t just a number. It’s a barometer for how Marin is changing, and honestly, it’s a nudge for communities to think hard about what kind of public school system they want to keep alive in the decades ahead.
Here is the source article for this story: Editorial: Continuing dip in Marin enrollment is a concern
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