Marin County staff rolled out a draft workplan and a three-year fiscal forecast for 2026–28 at the county’s budget workshops, held February 23–25 in the Marin Center’s Showcase Theater in San Rafael.
These exercises show a balanced forecast right now, but there’s a pretty slim operating margin because of federal and state funding pressures.
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Officials talked about progress in cutting retiree benefit liabilities and outlined plans to redirect pension obligation bond savings toward public safety facilities and road improvements.
As federal changes reshape healthcare and other benefits, staff warned about possible stress on the social safety net across towns from San Anselmo to Sausalito.
Marin County Budget Forecast: What This Means for Residents
This year, the Board of Supervisors and county staff say Marin’s fiscal health looks strong, but they’re not ignoring the “headwinds” facing social programs and infrastructure.
The Showcase Theater sessions drew feedback from residents and city managers all over Marin—San Rafael, Novato, Mill Valley, Larkspur, Corte Madera, and more—helping shape a plan that targets key needs while managing risk.
The forecast counts on a balanced budget over the next three years, but it also predicts tight operating margins as dollars flow through federal and state pipelines.
County leaders want to reuse pension savings to boost frontline infrastructure—public safety facilities and road improvements—instead of letting those dollars sit unused.
For folks in Marin City and Corte Madera, the idea is to protect essential services while investing in priorities that drive growth.
Financial outlook and operating margins
County finances are stable, but margins remain thin. Officials say this reality will require disciplined budgeting and clear priorities.
The three-year outlook shows cautious optimism: some revenue streams are growing, but ongoing federal and state funding pressures could squeeze day-to-day operations.
In practical terms for Marin communities—from Greenbrae to Belvedere—the county signals that capital projects and core services may compete for limited discretionary funds, while foundational programs stay protected.
Pension liabilities and savings strategy
Marin has made real progress in reducing retiree benefit liabilities.
The plan is to channel savings from pension obligation bond costs into essential needs like public safety facilities and road improvements.
This approach looks long-term: stabilize retirement obligations now, unlock funding for critical projects throughout Marin, whether it’s Tiburon’s hills or Novato’s neighborhoods.
Federal policy shifts and social safety nets
The workshops highlighted uncertainty around social safety-net programs as federal policy and funding changes affect how healthcare and benefits get delivered.
County staff warned that social services could face tight resources if federal support shrinks or eligibility rules change, which would hit communities from San Geronimo to Fairfax.
The County Executive’s final session confirmed the proposed budget will leave out State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP) funding and add $500,000 for immigration support services—showing the county’s adapting to evolving federal enforcement and support policies while staying responsive to Marin’s diverse communities.
Board Priorities and Community Engagement
The draft workplan zeroes in on Marin County’s top priorities: boosting affordable housing and addressing homelessness, building racial equity, cutting emissions and building climate resilience, improving disaster preparedness, investing in infrastructure, and lifting community and economic vitality.
In San Rafael’s downtown and Sausalito’s waterfront districts, residents and local leaders shared ideas about prioritizing housing stock, transit options, and climate-smart upgrades.
County staff will refine the workplan and forecast with public input before bringing an updated version to the Board in April.
After approval, the budget gets finalized and published by mid-May. Annual budget hearings are set for June 8–10 to adopt the 2026–28 financial plan.
The county points to a historic level of fiscal strength, even as it recognizes the pressing needs outlined by the Board’s recent $865.8 million 2025–26 budget approval and a January 2025 resolution affirming democracy, diversity, equity, and inclusion across Marin’s towns, from Ross to Mill Valley.
Top priorities in detail
- Increasing affordable housing and addressing homelessness in Marin City, San Rafael, Novato, Sausalito, Larkspur, and Fairfax
- Building racial equity and inclusive governance in Mill Valley, San Anselmo, Corte Madera, and nearby communities
- Cutting emissions and strengthening climate resilience along Marin’s coastlines and inland corridors
- Improving disaster preparedness across unincorporated areas and organized towns from Tiburon to Nicasio
- Investing in infrastructure—roads, bridges, and public facilities—in towns like Ross, San Anselmo, and Corte Madera
- Boosting community and economic vitality through culture, tourism, and local business in Sausalito, Tiburon, and surrounding neighborhoods
Timeline and Next Steps
Budget staff will take community input, tweak the workplan and forecast, and head back to the Board in April with an updated version. Once the Board signs off on the workplan, they’ll lock in the proposed budget and publish it by mid-May.
The public gets their say during the June 8–10 hearings, as Marin County wraps up the 2026–28 plan. All the while, Marin’s towns—from San Rafael to Fairfax—watch with a mix of hope and skepticism, waiting to see if stability actually brings real improvements in housing, climate readiness, and public safety for every neighborhood.
Bottom line, Marin County looks fiscally strong right now. Still, local leaders keep pushing for smart investments—whether that’s new housing in Novato or climate projects out in Stinson Beach—so the region can weather whatever comes from the feds and keep Marin lively and inclusive for the next few years, or at least that’s the hope.
Here is the source article for this story: Budget Workshop Highlights Balanced Forecast and Draft County Workplan
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