The latest California Democratic Party tracking poll shows Xavier Becerra widening his lead in the governor’s race. Right now, 21% of likely voters back him in a field that’s already seen sharp ad attacks and some pretty intense debate barbs.
The survey paints a crowded Democratic contest. There’s also a surprisingly strong Republican surge, all unfolding as ballots start heading toward Marin County voters’ mailboxes.
Discover hand-picked hotels and vacation homes tailored for every traveler. Skip booking fees and secure your dream stay today with real-time availability!
Browse Accommodations Now
In places like San Rafael, Mill Valley, and Novato, residents are weighing how much experience really matters. People wonder who can actually navigate a divided field under California’s top-two primary system.
Becerra’s rebound amid a crowded field
Xavier Becerra had a rough stretch—negative ads and some sharp debate moments didn’t help. But now, he seems to have bounced back by appealing to voters who want someone with governance experience “from day one” in this pretty volatile race.
The California Democratic Party’s tracking poll, done May 14–16, puts Becerra at the top among Democrats. There’s a hint that voters are starting to consolidate behind someone they see as a steady hand in Sacramento and coastal counties from Marin to Monterey.
Democratic contenders and the latest poll numbers
- Xavier Becerra – 21%
- Tom Steyer – 15%
- Katie Porter – 7%
- Matt Mahan (San José) – 4%
- Tony Thurmond – 1%
- Antonio Villaraigosa – 1%
Republicans are showing some movement at the top of the field, which keeps California’s political map pretty unpredictable. Steve Hilton, a former Fox host, leads the overall field with 22% support. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco trails at 10%.
Hilton’s rise comes right after an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. His campaign warns GOP voters not to split the vote, or they could end up with two Democrats in the top-two runoff.
For Marin County readers in cities like Tiburon or Sausalito, it’s not just about party loyalties. It’s also about how to navigate the state’s unique primary dynamics.
Becerra’s rebound seems driven by voters wanting an experienced governor who’s ready from the start. There are still questions about campaign spending, Chevron ties, and his leadership style.
The poll marks a pretty dramatic turnaround from early April, when Becerra polled at just 4%. Swalwell’s resignation pullback changed the whole dynamic for Democrats.
Republicans and the top-two dynamic
The California Republican field is trying to turn top-two worries into momentum. Steve Hilton stands out as the strongest GOP candidate right now.
The party’s strategy is to avoid splitting the vote, which could let two Democrats advance under California’s top-two system. In Marin County towns like San Anselmo and Fairfax, voters are watching how this might affect local races and the state budget.
Marin voters often rally around environmental and housing policies that differ from what inland counties want. This difference could matter a lot as the race heats up.
What this means for California voters and Marin residents
- Voters are watching a race where names like Becerra and Hilton show strength in different parts of the state, including the Bay Area’s Marin and Santa Clara County communities.
- The top-two primary creates a scenario where broad appeal matters as much as partisan loyalty, a factor Marin County residents analyze while voting from Larkspur to Mill Valley.
- Ballots have been mailed to 23.1 million registered voters, with early voting underway and most ballots not yet returned, a timeline that affects turnout across towns like Ross and San Rafael.
- The Evitarus poll of 1,200 likely voters has a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points, reminding Marin readers to weigh the numbers against local turnout trends in Marin City and Point Reyes Station.
- As campaigns step up digital outreach, Marin communities—from Corte Madera to Novato—are weighing which candidate offers governance experience, steady leadership, and a plan for coastal economies and housing in the Golden Gate region.
Ballot timing and what to watch in Marin County
Ballots are already on their way, and early voting has started. Marin County residents might want to keep an eye on how the statewide race lines up with local priorities.
In San Rafael and Sausalito, people still care a lot about environmental protections, coastal access, and finding ways to build housing that doesn’t wreck the landscape. Voters are weighing the Democratic field’s ideas against Republican proposals—and honestly, the state’s unpredictable fiscal outlook hangs over everything.
The next round of polling probably won’t surprise anyone if it shows candidates getting judged on how they plan to help Marin’s coastal economies and tourism. Folks here also want to know who’s actually going to take resilient infrastructure along Highway 101 and the Golden Gate corridor seriously.
Here is the source article for this story: Hilton, Becerra in tightening race in final weeks of California governor’s campaign
Find available hotels and vacation homes instantly. No fees, best rates guaranteed!
Check Availability Now
Cities and Towns in Marin County
Things to Do in Marin County
Places to Stay in Marin County
