The Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) says Measure AA revenue is looking up, so Marin County might finally have a steadier transportation funding outlook through 2049. Here’s a quick rundown of TAM’s latest forecast, the proposed reallocations, and what that could mean for towns from San Rafael to Sausalito, Mill Valley to Novato, and honestly, every little corner of Marin County.
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Measure AA Revenue Trends in Marin: What the Numbers Say
TAM Finance Director Melanie Purcell reports that the county’s half-cent sales tax should finish fiscal 2025-26 at $35.9 million. That’s a 1.7% bump from last year, hinting at a rebound from the pandemic slump.
Still, the forecast feels a bit cautious, thanks to mixed signals from Marin’s economy—retail and housing are both all over the map. For San Rafael and the rest of the North Bay, it’s a slow but hopeful step toward getting back to pre-pandemic levels.
TAM expects revenue to grow by 1.5% next year, then about 2% annually through 2031. Measure AA, which voters approved in 2018 to stretch the tax through 2049, has had a rough ride—annual estimates started near $35 million, dropped to $27.35 million in 2020, then crawled back close to $35 million by 2022.
The agency is juggling these ups and downs alongside Measure B, a $10 vehicle registration fee that also took a hit during the pandemic. TAM’s trying to balance the books, just like folks in NOVATO and TIBURON are doing on their own city budgets.
Forecast, Economic Context, and Local Impacts
With inflation inching up, retail sales bouncing, and homebuilding slowing, TAM’s playing it safe with the budget. In Marin’s cities—think Corte Madera, Larkspur, Sausalito, Fairfax—the focus stays on careful spending while keeping key projects alive.
Allocations and Programs Under Consideration
TAM wants to reallocate Measure AA funds to add $1.25 million for the school crossing guard program through 2034. That’s a big deal for students in places like San Anselmo and Ross who walk or bike to school.
They’re also pitching a new “reimagined roadway” fund by shifting 4% from local roads and dropping the 0.5% “innovative technology” category. That’d free up about $35 million for major corridor projects through 2049—something folks in Belvedere and Mill Valley are watching, especially if you commute daily or hit Point Reyes or downtown Marin City on weekends.
The TAM board plans a public hearing on the Measure AA expenditure plan in March. Anyone from the I-580 corridor in Novato to the winding roads of Marin City can weigh in.
Impact on Marin Transit and Local Agencies
Marin Transit’s set to get about $23 million in Measure AA funds this fiscal year. Even though the forecast’s brighter, TAM points out that projected costs are still running ahead of revenues, so budgeting’s going to be tight in San Rafael, San Anselmo, and Mill Valley.
A TAM draft budget should drop in May. Marin Transit will also present its draft and update its 10-year planning document then, keeping Novato and other north-county cities in the loop with the region’s long-term transportation game plan.
- Marin County-wide focus: careful forecasting and public input ahead of May drafts
- Key beneficiaries: Marin Transit, school crossing programs, and major corridor improvements
- Public engagement: March hearing on Measure AA expenditures
What This Means for Marin Communities: From Sausalito to San Rafael
In towns like Sausalito, Marin City, San Rafael, Novato, and Mill Valley, people can expect more focused investments in crossing safety and road upgrades. The plan shifts 4% from local roads, drops the 0.5% technology category, and pools those funds for bigger projects.
This approach should boost safety for students in San Anselmo. It might also give commuters traveling between Ross and Tiburon better options—though, to be honest, we’ll have to see how it plays out in practice.
As TAM heads into May’s budget cycle and March’s public hearing, Marin folks should keep an eye out for updates. Maybe we’ll see safer school routes in Fairfax and Larkspur, or maybe more modern corridors that help these towns stay connected.
Here is the source article for this story: Marin transportation tax revenue trends upward
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